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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.